Potential Risk of Neophysopella kraunhiae on Corydalis incisa and Wisteria floribunda under a Climate Change

As climate change intensifies, new plant diseases are emerging due to shifting ecosystems. The Rust (Pucciniales) group, containing about 7,000 fungal species, threatens vital crops like cereals, coffee, maize, and soybeans. An East Asian species, Neophysopella kraunhiae, causes rust disease, forming uredinial and telial stages on Wisteria species (Fabaceae) and spermogonial and aecial stages on Corydalis species (Papaveraceae). This species has been reported in China, Japan, and Taiwan, while it has not yet been observed in Korea despite the presence of the two plants. Recently, rust symptoms were found on Corydalis incisa and Wisteria floribunda in Korea. Based on morphological characteristics and molecular phylogenetic analysis of internal transcribed spacer (ITS) rDNA and large subunit (LSU), this rust was identified as N. kraunhiae. This study is the first report of rust diseases caused by N. kraunhiae on C. incisa and W. floribunda in Korea. Neophysopella kraunhiae potential risk assessment for the 2050s using the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) model, based on occurrence data of the two hosts with shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) scenario, predicts that C. incisa might spread to central Korea due to climate change, while W. floribunda‘s distribution stays consistent. A significant link between C. incisa‘s presence and the rust disease highlights the impact of climate-driven host shifts. The present study highlights that N. kraunhiae poses a potential risk for Wisteria cultivation under climate change and can serve as a valuable case study for predicting and controlling rust diseases.